Record High Consumer Confidence in Housing Benefits CMs

Editor’s Note: Rising consumer sentiment in housing appears to be based on greater optimism about the economy, job opportunities and earning potential. This is an optimal situation for CMs as this optimism will drive demand for new home construction even higher.

The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased by 5.6 percentage points in February to 88.3, a new all-time high. Five of the six components that comprise the HPSI were up, and three hit record highs. The net share of Americans who reported that now is a good time to buy rose 11 percentage points, while the net share who believe that now is a good time to sell rose 7 percentage points. Consumers also demonstrated greater confidence about not losing their jobs, with the net share rising 9 percentage points. On net, the share of respondents reporting that their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 4 percentage points. Additionally, more Americans expect home prices to go up, with the net share rising 3 percentage points. The net share of those who think mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months remained unchanged for the third consecutive month.

“The latest post-election surge in optimism puts the HPSI at its highest level since its starting point in 2011. Millennials showed especially strong increases in job confidence and income gains, a necessary precursor for increased housing demand from first-time homebuyers,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae. “Preliminary research results from our team find that millennials are accelerating the rate at which they move out of their parents’ homes and form new households. However, continued slow supply growth implies continued strong price appreciation and affordability constraints facing millennials and first-time buyers in many markets.”

HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX – COMPONENT HIGHLIGHTS

Here are the highlights:

• The net share of Americans who say it is a good time to buy a house rose 11 percentage points to 40%, rebounding strongly from last month’s survey low.
• The net percentage of those who say it is a good time to sell increased by 7 percentage points to 22%, reaching a new survey high.
• The net share of Americans who say that home prices will go up increased by 3 percentage points in February to 45%.
• The net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next twelve months remained constant for the third consecutive month at -55%.
• The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned about losing their job rose 9 percentage points to a new survey high of 78%.
• The net share of Americans who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago rose 4 percentage points to 19% in February, continuing the increase from January and reaching a new survey high.

ABOUT FANNIE MAE’S HOME PURCHASE SENTIMENT INDEX

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) distills information about consumers’ home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers’ current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers’ evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.